Forrester Shouldn't Pop the Cork Until the Returns Come In

New Jersey holds its primary for governor today. Democrat Jon Corzine faces no serious opposition. Among the seven Republicans, businessman Doug Forrester and former Jersey City mayor Bret Schundler are leading the pack. Recent Quinnipiac polls have Mr. Forrester widening and then losing much of his lead over Mr. Schundler. Mr. Forrester now leads by two points, down from 11 points less than a week ago.

Mr. Forrester spoke confidently as his lead grew, but New Jersey voters are known for making up their minds at the last minute. A third of voters who say they'll vote for Mr. Forrester also say they might change their minds. Mr. Schundler's support is firmer, but not by much. Mr. Schundler has a track record of coming through in the clutch. In the primary four years ago, he pulled an 11th hour win over the machine candidate to become the GOP nominee. In Jersey City, he won three terms as mayor in a near-total Democratic town.

If Mr. Schundler is known for beating the odds, Mr. Forrester is known for choking in the last lap. By all accounts, he should be sitting in the U.S. Senate today. Three years ago, he ran against Robert "the Torch" Torricelli, whose abysmal ethics record forced him out of the race a few weeks before Election Day. Democrats substituted the popular Frank Lautenberg, though the legal deadline had passed, and Mr. Lautenberg trounced Mr. Forrester, who utterly failed to make the most of the Democratic machine's crass manipulation of the rules.

The Republican primary campaign has really been a two-man race between Messrs. Forrester and Schundler from the start. Mr. Forrester's wealth has helped him dominate the airwaves in the pricey New York and Philadelphia markets. He's also spent heavily in mailers and those diminutive roadside posters. Only recently has Mr. Schundler been spending to boost his name recognition. The other candidates, none of whom polls more than a dime, have used some offbeat strategies for getting attention. Paul DiGaetano features his mother in his ads, Steven M. Lonegan offered $250 to anyone who can find a better mayor than he is, and Robert Schroeder is calling firefighters to his aid.

Mr. Forrester has the lead, but he doesn't have it in the bag. A low turnout could foil his victory plans. But whoever wins the GOP nomination will want to consider bulking up on spinach and steroids because Democrat Jon Corzine has a big lead in the polls, deep pockets and the grit to spend whatever it takes to win.